Ironick

A great article on modeling risk

I finally got around to reading Risk Management in the New York Times Magazine. It is one of the best articles on

• Wall Street
• Modeling
• Risk
• How people game models
• How all models eventually fail

that I have ever read. It is must reading.

All risk management systems, all (complex) models for that matter, are examples of robust yet fragile systems: robust in the face of expected events, yet extremely fragile in the face of unexpected events. Of course we will "fix" our models and rebuild. But remember Hawkins Law:

Progress does not involve replacing one theory that is wrong with one that is right, rather it involves replacing one theory that is wrong with one that is more subtly wrong.

And that more subtle error will one day cause the edifice built upon it to come crashing down. And so it shall always be, since there's no such thing as a free lunch.

This post is True and False

Just came across two great logical/philosophical concepts: paraconsistent logic and dialetheism. Both reject, to differing degrees, the Law of Non-Contradiction. I guess F. Scott Fitzgerald was a paraconsistent dialetheist:

The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function. One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless and yet be determined to make them otherwise.
The Crack-Up (1936)

Once again, I came across these concepts serendipitously: a Google  alert for a paper asserting that interactive computation is paraconsistent.

Technorati Tags     logic,philosophy,contradiction

Every day, and in every way, we're getting meta and meta.

Great quote from a philosopher I never heard of: John Wisdom. Also, here's a very interesting use of the quote by a very interesting person.

Nick's Law v1: Nature maximizes satisficing over maximizing.

Nick's Law v1: Nature maximizes satisficing over maximizing.

Compare to

Voltaire
Le mieux est l'ennemi du bien. (The best is the enemy of the good.)
http://www-users.cs.york.ac.uk/~susan/cyc/q/quotes.htm

In my terms: "Maximizing is the enemy of Satisficing."

And compare to

They were religions of the average, and the average is at war with the ideal.
Alfred North Whitehead
"Religion in the Making"

In my terms: "Satisficing is at war with Maximizing."

(Later, I'll explain how this relates to competing theories of economic growth: traditional theories that emphasize equalibrium vs. new theories that emphasize "continuing disequilibrium". Of course, "continuing" is a form of equilibrium. <grin>)

That's quite a throw.

In tracking down uses of the expression "God is a verb" (which I got onto while tracking down use of the term panta rhei "all is change"), I came across an interesting page ("In the Beginning Was a Verb") that made the etymological connection between symbol ("throw together") and devil ("throw apart"). Given my recent entry on dialectic, which concerns the ability to join together (sunagoge) and split apart (diariresis), (See WHY PROMETHEUS SUFFERS: TECHNOLOGY AND THE ECOLOGICAL CRISIS for an interesting discussion of Phaedrus.) I found the symbol/devil variation fascinating. Its easy to see why the antithesis phase of dialectic (using modern thesis, antithesis, synthesis nomenclature) would be associated with the devil, since it is viewed as the destruction of or the opposition of the thesis phase.

Of course I had to go off and find other words from the same root: ballein "to throw". So here they are. Its amazing to see the branches that have grown from this root.

throw up: anabolic
throw apart: diablo
throw in: emblem
throw beyond: hyperbole
throw over: metabolic
throw alongside: parable
throw forward: problem
throw together: symbol

anabolic - "pertaining to the process of building up (especially in metabolism)," 1876, from Gk. anabole "that 
which is thrown up, mound," from ana "up, upward" + ballein "to throw." 
http://www.etymonline.com/a5etym.htm

devil - O.E. deofol "evil spirit," from L.L. diabolus, from Gk. diabolos "accuser, slanderer" (scriptural loan-
translation of Heb. satan), from diaballein "to slander, attack," lit. "throw across," from dia- "across, 
through" + ballein "to throw." Jerome re-introduced Satan in L. bibles, and Eng. translators have used both in 
different measures. In Vulgate, as in Gk., diabolus and dmon (see demon) were distinct, but they have merged in 
Eng. and other Gmc. languages. Playful use for "clever rogue" is from 1601. Meaning "sand spout, dust storm" is 
from 1835. Devilry is from 1375; deviltry (1788) is a corrupt formation from it. Devilled "grilled with hot 
condiments" is from 1800. The Tasmanian devil so called since at least 1829, from its propensity for killing 
young lambs (other voracious fish or animals have also been named devil). Phrase a devil way (c.1290) was 
originally an emphatic form of away, but taken by late 14c. as an expression of irritation. Devil's advocate (
1760) is L. advocatus diaboli, one whose job it is to urge against the canonization of a candidate for sainthood. 
Devil-may-care is attested from 1837. Devil's books "playing cards" is from 1729, but the cited quote says 
they've been called that "time out of mind" (the four of clubs is the devil's bedposts); devil's coach-horse is 
from 1840, the large rove-beetle, which is defiant when disturbed. "Talk of the Devil, and he's presently at your 
elbow" [1666].
http://www.etymonline.com/d3etym.htm

emblem - c.1430, from Fr. embleme "symbol," from L. emblema "inlaid ornamental work," from Gk. emblema (gen. 
emblematos) "embossed ornament," lit. "insertion," from emballein "to insert," lit. "to throw in," from em- "in" 
+ ballein "to throw." 
http://www.etymonline.com/e2etym.htm

hyperbole - 1529, from L. hyperbole, from Gk. hyperbole "exaggeration, extravagance," from hyperballein "to throw 
over or beyond," from hyper- "beyond" + bol-, nom. stem of ballein "to throw." Rhetorical sense is found in 
Aristotle and Isocrates. 
http://www.etymonline.com/h6etym.htm

metabolism - in physiology sense, 1878, from Fr. mtabolisme, from Gk. metabole "change," from metaballein "to 
change," from meta- "over" + ballein "to throw." Metabolic is first attested 1845 in this sense, from Ger. 
metabolisch (1839). The word is attested from 1743 with the lit. sense of "involving change." 
http://www.etymonline.com/m5etym.htm

parable - c.1325, "saying or story in which something is expressed in terms of something else," from O.Fr. 
parable, from L. parabola "comparison," from Gk. parabole "a comparison, parable," lit. "a throwing beside," from 
para- "alongside" + bole "a throwing, casting," related to ballein "to throw." Replaced O.E. bispell. 
http://www.etymonline.com/p2etym.htm

problem - 1382, "a difficult question proposed for solution," from O.Fr. problme (14c.), from L. problema, from 
Gk. problema "a problem, a question," lit. "thing put forward," from proballein "propose," from pro "forward" + 
ballein "to throw" (see ballistics). Problem child first recorded 1920.
http://www.etymonline.com/p10etym.htm

symbol - c.1434, "creed, summary, religious belief," from L. symbolum "creed, token, mark," from Gk. symbolon "
token, watchword" (applied by Cyprian of Carthage to the Apostles' Creed, 3c.), from syn- "together" + stem of 
ballein "to throw." The sense evolution is from "throwing things together" to "contrasting" to "comparing" to "
token used in comparisons to determine if something is genuine." Hence, "outward sign" of something. The meaning 
"something which stands for something else" first recorded 1590. Symbolism is 1892 as a movement in Fr. 
literature that aimed at representing ideas and emotions by indirect suggestion rather than direct expression; it 
attached symbolic meaning to certain objects, words, etc.
http://www.etymonline.com/s15etym.htm

Here is the Indo-European root information:
The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language: Fourth Edition. 2000. 
Appendix I
Indo-European Roots 
ENTRY: gwel- 
DEFINITION: Also gwel-. To throw, reach, with further meaning to pierce. Oldest form *gwel1-, with metathesized 
variant *gwle1-, contracted to *gwl-.
Derivatives include devil, emblem, metabolism, parliament, problem, symbol, ballet, and kill1.
I. Words denoting to throw, reach. Variant *gwl-, contracted from *gwle-. 1. Suffixed zero-grade form *gw-n--. 
a. ballista; amphibole, arbalest, astrobleme, bolide, devil, diabolic, embolism, emboly, epiboly, hyperbola, 
hyperbole, metabolism, palaver, parable, parabola, parley, parliament, parlor, parol, parole, problem, symbol, 
from Greek ballein, to throw (with o-grade *bol- and variant *bl-); b. ball2, ballad, ballet, bayadere, from 
Greek ballizein, to dance. 2. Suffixed o-grade form *gwol()--. bolometer, from Greek bol, beam, ray. 3. Possible 
suffixed o-grade form *gwol()-s-. boule1, abulia, from Greek boul, determination, will (< "throwing forward of 
the mind"), council. 4. Suffixed full-grade form *gwel-mno-. belemnite, from Greek belemnon, dart, javelin.
II. Words denoting to pierce. 1. Suffixed o-grade form *gwol-eyo-. a. quell, from Old English cwellan, to 
kill, destroy; b. quail2, from Middle Dutch quelen, to be ill, suffer. Both a and b from Germanic *kwaljan. 2. 
Suffixed zero-grade form *gw-yo-. kill1, from Middle English killen, to kill, perhaps from Old English *cyllan, 
to kill, from Germanic *kuljan. 3. Full-grade form *gwel-. belonephobia, from Greek belon, needle. (Pokorny 2. 
gel- 471, 1. gel- 470.) 
http://www.bartleby.com/61/roots/IE181.html

But see: http://www.finucane.de/archive.htm, which claims ballein is not indo-european.

The Celtic Tree of Life

This image symbolizes my philosophy/project. It captures so many concepts: dialectic, recursion, spanning layer, e pluribus unum (from diversity unity), symbiosis and speciation, asymmetry, complexity (braiding). The design is by the Welsh artist Jen Delyth. You can see different variations of the design and even order it on a T-shirt (I have it) at her web site Keltic Designs.

Celtic Tree of Life - original design by Welsh artist Jen Delyth ©1990, used with permission.

Signal Processing is the Science of Finding Patterns.

I saw this quote in an interview with Teresa Meng (founder of Atheros) in ACM Queue regarding Signal Processing:

RB: How would you advise someone who wants to get involved with digital signal processing and new applications?

TM: You will have to master a few areas. You cannot just learn math and ignore the silicon, especially in signal processing where the algorithms really mean nothing unless you have an interesting, efficient way of implementing them. Then you immerse yourself in the application domain of your interest.

RB: Do you have any ideas on what you might do after the neural area?

TM: Probably something bio-related. I do feel that signal processing is the basic tool that can be applied to many different areas. We have applied it to low-power circuit designs, video processing, and, most recently, wireless communication. I think in the next several decades signal processing will be widely used in the bio field—for example, genome analysis or diagnostics. Signal processing is after all a science for optimal detection. I think there might be some interesting developments in those areas. [emphasis added]

I've never heard anyone describe signal processing this way. I interpret her as saying that signal processing is the science of finding patterns.

Also, given the broad definition of signal ("A signal is an abstract element of information"), signal seems synonymous with datum/data. Thus information processing seems synonymous with signal processing. A pattern is just a relationship, which is what a signal is.

Furthermore, in a later article in the ACM Queue issue on DSP, it is observed that DSP systems must optimize three concerns: speed, precision, and power. I would add a forth: adaptability (aka programmability). The three concerns are equivalent to my three concerns for liquidity: timeliness, value, and efficiency.

Finally, perhaps Signal Processing is the Science of Finding and Generating Patterns. Thus evolution (which finds and generates patterns) is a form of signal processing.

Information is a difference that makes a difference.

The above quote is from Gregory Bateson, Steps to an Ecology of Mind (2000). I saw this quote a while ago and I really like it. In fact, I thought I posted it, but I guess not. Now I am. It turns out there is an even earlier version of it by Donald MacKay, "Information, Mechanism and Meaning" (1969): "Information is a distinction that makes a difference." See this paper for confirmation of priority.

The question is, does the distinction between the two quotes make a difference?

Etymology of Die.

I am deeply intrigued by Richard Langlois' concept of a die being a kind of knowledge that is spread across all the items made from the die. It brings to mind structure (the die) transforming "raw" structures into identical structures. It is replication. It is even self-replication from the point of view of the die. But it is not self-replication in the sense of the die itself carrying out the replication process. Instead, some machine uses the die in a replication process. Note that in this sense, the die is acting as a kind of catalyst: it participates in a process of production without being used up in that process.

Intrigued by the concept, of course, I had to understand better the etymology of the word. The following is from Webster's Dictionary of 1913:

Die , n.; pl. in 1 and (usually) in 2, Dice (d&imacr;s); in 4 & 5, Dies (d&imacr;z). [OE. dee , die , F. d , fr. L. datus given, thrown, p. p. of dare to give, throw. See Date a point of time.]

The following is from the Online Etymology Dictionary:

die (n.) - c.1330 (as a plural), from O.Fr. de, of uncertain origin, perhaps from L. datum "given," pp. of dare, which, in addition to "give," had a secondary sense of "to play" (as a chess piece); or else from "what is given" (by chance or Fortune). Sense of "stamping block or tool" first recorded 1699.
data - 1646, pl. of datum, from L. datum "(thing) given," neuter pp. of dare "give." Meaning "transmittable and storable computer information" first recorded 1946. Data processing is from 1954. Database formed 1962, from data + base.
date (1) - "time," c.1330, from O.Fr. date, from M.L. data, noun use of fem. sing. of L. datus "given," pp. of dare "give." The Roman convention of closing every article of correspondence by writing "given" and the day and month -- meaning "given to messenger" -- led to data becoming a term for "the time (and place) stated." The meaning "to give" is also the root of the grammatical dative (M.E.), the case of giving. Dateline in the journalism sense is attested from 1888. Phrase up to date (1890) is from bookkeeping. Dated "old-fashioned" is attested from 1900. Date (n.) "romantic liaison" is from 1885, gradually evolving from the general sense of "appointment;" the verb in this sense is first recorded 1902. Meaning "person one has a date with" is from 1925. Blind date first recorded 1925, but probably in use before that. Date rape first attested 1975.

First, I am very pleased that die and data are from the same root in that both are "given." In this way, both act as "fixed points" or invariants. Second, one can see that date and data are from the same root, and that data originally meant simply: "the time and place stated." This means that data originally referred to information we would call metadata today, i.e., the time and place of origin of a message.

The mystery here is how die in the sense of a gambling cube gave rise to die in the sense of mould or stamp. According to the Oxford English Dictionary the first citation for the latter sense was 1699. My guess is the shape of such a stamp was in the shape of a cube, with looked like a die in the former sense.

All of this ties back to the concept of information (which is what knowledge is) as that which gives form (from informare: to give form). Information, or knowledge spreads when it can be broadly used in an environment. No need to press a thousand copies from one stamp if the market will absorb only ten. The "success" of a piece of information, a form, is the number of its replicas in the environment. Life is just a particular kind of replicating information or "form" (life "form").

This replication is success simply in terms of increasing returns on investment. In the most general sense, the investment is one of energy. For a given energy investment in creating the durable die, one can form replicas from that die with less energy than forming each item individually. From this point of view, entropy favors the creation of structures like dies and like life forms that lower the energy required to mass produce forms of energy that are more easily used (e.g., consumed). As I quoted from Stanley Salthe earlier in my blog: The punch line -- form results from, and further mediates, convective energy flows, which more effectively degrade energy gradients than would slow frictional conduction, like diffusion.

The Heterogeneous Self.

Self is hetro across time (diachronic?): old self, current self, future self.

Self is hetro in time (synchronic?): hetro components compose the self.

Both forms of hetro entail competition and cooperation.